The 5 best bets for Tuesday’s scoreboard, with Blue Jays vs. Rays, Athletics vs. Angels (August 2)

Happy MLB Trade Deadline Day!

While the biggest news of the day will happen off the field, there’s still a mature 16-game slate for us to bet on. And our analysts are everywhere.

Including Game 1 of the doubleheader between the Rocky Mountains Y fathersour analysts also bet on tiles against Ray, Athletics against angelsand a couple of dueling spikes on Dodgers against giants.

Here are our best bets from Tuesday’s Major League Baseball list.

MLB odds and predictions

Click on a game to advance
Rockies vs. Padres Game 1
4:10 p.m. Eastern Time
lightning tiles
7:10 p.m. Eastern Time
Athletics vs Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Dodgers vs. Giants
9:45 p.m. ET
Dodgers vs. Giants
9:45 p.m. ET

Rockies vs. Padres Game 1

To choose
Parents -1.5 (-115)
Book
BetMGM
pitchers
Ryan Feltner vs. Yu Darvish
first pitch
4:10 p.m. Eastern Time

Julius Posner: Fresh off the successful move to acquire Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals, the San Diego Padres kick off Tuesday’s MLB action with Game 1 of a doubleheader against the Colorado Rockies this afternoon.

Yu Darvish is a starter and has been exceptional at home this season. His 1.94 home ERA was combined with a 2.94 FIP fit in well against a Rockies offense that has struggled on the road this year. Additionally, the Rockies may also have some players on trade watch before game time.

Ryan Feltner is scheduled to start with the Rockies and has struggled so far in 2022. To make matters worse, he faces a Padres offense that has been crushing RHP at home since the All-Star break.

The Padres are already good and will soon be much better, but they’re also a team full of veterans who should be able to ignore all the trade rumors and do it on the field Tuesday.

parents running line it’s at -1.5 in the -115 range in most of the books. Public cash also seems to be moving quickly in his direction. It seems likely that crowd money will catch up with tickets before game time, so follow the money and back Darvish in this one.


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lightning tiles

To choose
More than 7 (-120)
Book
caesars
pitchers
Kevin Gausman vs. Drew Rasmussen
first pitch
7:10 p.m. Eastern Time

Brad Cunningham: Kevin Gausman has been really good this season, but not incredibly dominant. He has a 3.62 xERA, opponents have a .252 xBA against him and he is allowing a 39.1% sweet spot percentage, which is his highest mark since 2019.

Kevin Gausman relies heavily on his splitter, which isn’t really going to work against the Rays, who have a +13 run value against splitters this season.

Drew Rasmussen is a great candidate for negative regression. His actual ERA is 3.17, but his xERA is 4.11. He is allowing a .247 xBA and a very high 43.2% shooting rate.

He relies heavily on a fastball, cutter, and slider, and his cutter and slider really aren’t that effective, allowing for over .320 xwOBA. Toronto has a combined career value of +50.7 against those three pitches and is the second-best team in baseball against right-handed pitching in terms of wOBA.

I have 8.56 runs projected for this game so I love the 7+ runs value at -120 and I would also play 7.5+ runs at -115.


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Athletics vs Angels

To choose
More than 7.5 (-105)
Book
fan duel
pitchers
Cole Irvin vs. Noah Syndergaard
first pitch
9:38 p.m. ET

Charlie DiSturco: This is a game I scored a week ago, on the heels of Cole Irvin’s seven innings of two-run ball against Houston. stars.

Irvin has been one of the luckiest pitchers in all of baseball this season. They not only do their xERA (4.46) and xFIP (4.30) has a higher career than his actual ERA (3.05), his advanced metrics are alarming across the board.

He ranks in the bottom 15 percent of all pitchers in barrel rate, xSLG and strikeout rate. He relies on throwing to contact and, despite a .260 xBA against the lefty, has stranded 76.6 percent of baserunners in 18 starts.

Irvin has always escaped traffic jams and it’s only a matter of time before it blows up in his face.

Noah Syndergaard takes the mound against the lefty, and he’s been a pitcher I’ve consistently faded over the course of the season. The right-hander’s expected metrics are a half-run above his actual ERA and he has lost the once-dominant strikeout rate he sported in New York.

Opponents have a .250 xBA and a .401 xSLG against Syndergaard, both career lows, who also has an 8.1 percent barrel rate. He has also allowed 56 stolen bases in 59 attempts this season, allowing runners to get into scoring position with ease.

I think this is the perfect opportunity to fade both starting pitchers. The A’s offense has been on fire the past two weeks: seventh in WRC+, 2nd in isolated power, and Irvin is long behind due to negative regression.

I can not believe this total He opened at a juice of 7 and although he is up to 7.5 in most markets, he would take control down to 8 (-110). The market is respecting starting pitchers too much and has too little faith in offenses to make noise.

Take over in what should be a high-scoring game in Anaheim.


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Dodgers vs. Giants

To choose
Giants +124
Book
fan duel
pitchers
Tyler Anderson vs. Alex Wood
first pitch
9:45 p.m. ET

antonio dabundo: Tyler Anderson has had an impressive season for the Dodgers with a 2.61 ERA at this point. However, the southpaw has underlying numbers that suggest a regression is coming. His 3.21 FIP, 3.93 xFIP and 3.10 xERA, combined with similar K-BB% ratings to last season, show that he has performed quite well in variance.

Anderson’s BABIP is 30 points lower than his career average and his HR/FB rate is half his usual number. If you’ve bet on Anderson this year, you’ve done well, but that doesn’t mean you’ll keep doing it. He faces the Giants and Alex Wood, who is a positive regression candidate. The Giants left-hander has a 4.11 ERA, but a 3.67 xERA, a 3.50 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP.

The reality is that Anderson and Wood are fairly comparable starting pitchers, and the Giants’ split leads help even out the differences in the two lineups. The Giants are fourth in wRC+ against lefties this season, which is better than the fifth-place Dodgers.

Despite the advantages of the Dodgers’ defense and bullpen, that’s not enough to make the Dodgers a heavy favorite on the road. I think the game should line up closer to a draw and therefore take San Francisco to +110 or better.


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Dodgers vs. Giants

To choose
Dodgers-135
Book
BetMGM
pitchers
Tyler Anderson vs. Alex Wood
first pitch
9:45 p.m. ET

kenny ducey: The story remains the same for the San Francisco Giants. They have good numbers against left-handed pitching, but it’s just a mirage. That’s because many of the team’s regular bats are missing, including Brandon Crawford, Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson. On top of that, this team has been unrecognizable since the season began.

That brings us to Tuesday. Tyler Anderson has been absolutely sublime with a strikeout rate of just under 30%, and he comes into this start without an earned run against him in his last three starts. One of them was against the Giants.

San Francisco is striking out at a meager 24.1% rate over the last week of play and I don’t think it has much of a chance here. While I’ve been a big Alex Wood guy for years, I think he’s a bit overrated by punters here. He has had plenty of starts against average competition and has been blamed for the loss in both at-bats against the Dodgers, who saw him allow five wins in 9 ⅓ innings.

Wood’s strikeout numbers just didn’t hit the mark this year, and with a 39% hard hitting rate and a team that doesn’t like to strike out on the other side of this, things could get messy once again.


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