Toronto and Philadelphia combined yesterday for an absurd 29 runs. Although the Blue Jays and Phillies will close out this two-game set with two strong starters, our MLB betting picks see value in the underdogs and another high-scoring game.
The Toronto Blue Jays are beginning to extend their lead for the top spot in the AL wild card race after beating the Philadelphia Phillies in the opener of their two-game mini set last night, beating Philly 18-11. .
With Kevin Gausman scheduled to face Zack Wheeler, a drastic reduction in runs would be expected, at least that’s what the total indicates, but is there a chance of more fireworks even with this pitcher dueling? Are the Blue Jays a little undervalued?
Check out the best bet for me free MLB betting picks and predictions for this interleague battle between the Blue Jays and the Phillies to find out.
Best Blue Jays vs Phillies odds
Blue Jays vs Phillies Picks and Predictions
The Blue Jays had a total of 21 hits in Tuesday’s blowout of the Phillies, but the most impressive part of the Blue Jays’ 18-11 win was the fact that they hit just two home runs during their offensive explosion.
Now, a quick look at the pitching matchup for Game 2, and you might think the score could be drastically reduced with Kevin Gaussman Y Zack Wheeler in the pothole After a closer look, I’m not so sure.
For the most part, Gausman He has seemed like a great signing for the Blue Jays this offseason. That said, he has picked a tough time to go through his first slump of the year, thanks to finding too much at the plate. The result has been to give up the dingers. Many of them.
The numbers are actually a bit jarring. Gausman gave up just seven home runs in his first 24 starts of the season. Now, he has given up seven in his last four starts. And do you know what Phillies do? He hit home runs: the sixth most per game in the MLB.
On the other hand, Wheeler finds himself in a bit of a similar situation. The Phillies right-hander is having a breakout season, but a brief slump and some elbow soreness mean Wheeler hasn’t pitched for Philly in nearly a month. Removing the rust from an offense as dangerous as the tiles It’s not always a great plan.
The Blue Jays are also one of the few teams to have done any real damage against Wheeler this season, coming at him with six runs on seven hits in just 4 2-3 innings in July.
While Gausman is a bit depressed, I have more confidence in him to shoot better than his counterpart on this one. On top of that, the Blue Jays have a superior bullpen, ranking 13th in the MLB in ERA, compared to the Phillies, who rank 23rd. Also, the Blue Jays didn’t have to use any of their big-leverage arms in the yesterday’s victory.
Despite being, on paper, a pitching matchup, the runs should keep coming in this one. On top of that, making the Blue Jays a bit of a loser feels like a mistake.
So you know what? We go a little differently today and do a little parlay of the same game, taking on the Blue Jays at the money line and the Over 8 for a nice little bonus payout.
my best bet: Same Game Parlay – Blue Jays Money Line + 8+ (+258 at Caesar’s)
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Blue Jays vs Phillies Betting Preview
money line analysis
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup slightly behind and punters continue to fade them as of Wednesday morning, with lines like Jays +100 starting to appear on the betting boards. I hope the money from the Phillies keeps coming in, because I love the value the Blue Jays have here.
My best guess to explain this line is that Wheeler throws very well at home and Gausman has been allowing too many home runs lately. That doesn’t take into account, however, that Wheeler is making his first start back from injury and that Gausman has pitched better than the numbers indicate recently, as the right-hander still has an impressive 2.41 FIP for the season.
You can argue that the offenses are a push in this matchup, but I’m giving the Blue Jays an edge when it comes to the pitching matchup, both with the starters and in the bullpen. So for me, the value lies in the road team.
Covers MLB betting analysis
The movement on the total has been interesting. He opened with a pair of 8 and briefly bet 7.5 before Over money took the number to 8.5. There are still some 8’s on the board as of Wednesday morning.
This is a pitching matchup for its own sake. As I’ve already broken down, both offenses should be successful in this matchup. Both pitchers are in an odd position facing powerful lineups that rank in the Top 10 for OPS when it comes to facing right-handed pitching.
While I don’t expect another 29 runs tonight, a total of 8 or 8.5 should still come crashing down with the way these two teams are hitting.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 20-6 in their last 26 road games against a right-handed starter. find more MLB Betting Trends for the Blue Jays against the Phillies
Blue Jays vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2022
• first pitch: 6:45 p.m. Eastern Time
• TV: Sportsnet, NBCS-PHI
Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.45 ERA): While Gausman has been reliable and one of the AL’s best starters for most of the season, he picked a rather inopportune time to enter his first slump as a Blue Jay, posting a 5.04 ERA over his last four openings.
Zack Wheeler (11-7, 3.07 ERA): Wheeler makes his first Phillies start since Aug. 20 because of elbow soreness. (Never a good thing for a pitcher.) It seemed like it was getting to him. After giving up four or more earned runs just three times in his first 21 starts, he gave up six and four before heading to the disabled list.
find the latest MLB injury reports.
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